A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
