🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.